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University of Pennsylvania Law Review, 151(3), 1211–1254.Ĭamerer, C., & Lovallo, D. Regulation for conservatives: Behavioral economics and the case for “asymmetric paternalism”. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 18(1), 39–43.Ĭamerer, C., Issacharoff, S., Loewenstein, G., O’Donoghue, T., & Rabin, M. Changes in and generalization of unrealistic optimism following experiences with stressful events: Reactions to the 1989 California earthquake. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.īurger, J. Vesper (Eds.), The encyclopedia of entrepreneurship (pp. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 37(5), 373–385.īrockhaus, R. The return to independent invention: Evidence of risk seeking, extreme optimism or skewness-loving? The Economic Journal, 113(484), 226–239.īlanchflower, D. And a vision appeared unto them of a great profit: Evidence of self-deception among self-employed. Methodology/approachĬritical review of the existing literature on unrealistic optimism and its implications for economic and managerial decision making.Īrabsheibani, G., de Meza, D., Maloney, J., & Pearson, B. Originality/valueĪ careful analysis of the psychology of over-optimism from an economics and managerial perspective is original and extremely valuable in a world where uncertainty dominates. Since the policy and welfare implications of such a (neglected) widespread phenomenon are vast, we challenge the current public policy trend of extending lending to business start-ups, on the grounds that it may create a real road to ruin. We show that most people are prone to groundless optimism when faced with economic and managerial decisions and yet economists, managers and policy makers still ignore it or fail to understand its characteristics. We also analyze current trends in terms of entrepreneurship by policy makers. The purpose of this study is to take a critical approach of the main research done in the area and to analyze the important impact that it has in many economic and managerial contexts. Conclusions: Results indicate that OCD is associated with inflated personal vulnerability and that this bias is not fully available to the consciousness of OCD participants.Unrealistic optimism is all around us, and it is a well-documented psychological phenomenon. However, whereas healthy participants displayed an UO bias, OCD participants perceived themselves as more vulnerable to experience OCD-related events. Results: No evidence was obtained in OCD to overestimate the overall probability of negative or OCD-related events. They were asked several questions about different event types (positive, negative, and OCD-related): the probability that this event will happen to oneself (block 1), to another person (block 2), comparison between oneself versus another person (block 3), appraisal of consequences (block 4), and prior encounters with event (block 5). Method: Fifty-three participants with OCD as well as 40 healthy and 23 psychiatric controls participated in an internet survey. UO refers to the phenomenon that the subjective likelihood to personally experience a positive event is enhanced compared to other persons and vice versa for negative events. Specifically, an attenuation of the common “unrealistic optimism” bias (UO) was expected for OCD patients. Aims: We hypothesized that OCD patients overestimate their personal but not the average risk for OCD-related events.
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Background: Overestimation of threat (OET) is ascribed a pathogenetic role in obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD).